December 5, 2020

Second wave of coronavirus here statistics indicate; model estimates 2,000 more deaths by March

Mississippi’s rising trend in new coronavirus cases seems to be signaling the “second wave” that many health care experts have feared ahead of the holiday season and based on the numbers released Thursday, the virus is spreading quickly across the Magnolia State.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 1,395 new cases on Thursday, bringing the total cases since the pandemic began in March to 138,791.

Of the total cases, the state believes approximately 116,683 have recovered and while many people who are infected with the virus may only have moderate or even no visible symptoms, others can get gravely ill and die as a result.

The state reported 19 new deaths Thursday. A total of 3,619 Mississippians have died from the virus, the state reported.

Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation have created a data-driven model that projects where Mississippi’s death toll from COVID-19 may wind up at the present trajectory. On Thursday morning, the model indicated the death toll could be 5,566 by March 1 if current mitigation measures remain in place.

Their projection jumps to more than 6,900 deaths if mitigation measures are eased and falls to 4,900 if universal mask mandates were put into effect.

The 7-day, daily average of new cases jumped to 1,161 with Thursday’s update. It was the highest 7-day average since August 3.

The 14-day, daily average of new cases rose to 1,065 on Thursday, the highest level since August 9.

State hospitals are reporting increased COVID-19 cases are putting stress on their capacity.

On Thursday, the state reported that 948 people were hospitalized with either confirmed COVID-19 or suspected COVID. The number of hospitalized patients has been steadily rising in recent weeks.

Latest hospitalization numbers

Cumulative Cases and Deaths by County

Totals of all reported COVID-19 cases for 2020, including those in long-term care (LTC) facilities.

The numbers in this table are provisional. County case numbers and deaths may change as investigation finds new or additional information. The data provided below is the most current available.

County Total Cases Total Deaths Total LTC Facility Cases Total LTC Facility Deaths
Adams 1296 48 64 14
Alcorn 1398 23 88 10
Amite 476 14 15 2
Attala 1019 30 101 21
Benton 476 17 44 9
Bolivar 2315 83 222 30
Calhoun 696 13 25 4
Carroll 671 14 45 9
Chickasaw 993 32 47 14
Choctaw 289 7 1 0
Claiborne 570 16 43 9
Clarke 859 53 93 27
Clay 827 26 20 3
Coahoma 1429 40 126 11
Copiah 1551 39 72 9
Covington 1122 34 67 15
De Soto 9232 93 102 20
Forrest 3517 85 176 41
Franklin 299 4 4 1
George 1182 23 36 6
Greene 567 22 40 6
Grenada 1327 44 114 21
Hancock 1098 37 59 9
Harrison 6604 104 314 35
Hinds 9261 189 497 81
Holmes 1214 60 102 20
Humphreys 509 18 32 7
Issaquena 108 4 0 0
Itawamba 1410 33 89 17
Jackson 5892 112 114 12
Jasper 785 21 1 0
Jefferson 328 11 13 3
Jefferson Davis 523 16 9 1
Jones 3337 87 188 38
Kemper 392 15 41 9
Lafayette 2968 46 123 28
Lamar 2656 48 43 12
Lauderdale 3164 142 301 76
Lawrence 674 14 26 2
Leake 1286 43 42 7
Lee 4622 91 195 39
Leflore 1965 89 195 47
Lincoln 1746 64 162 36
Lowndes 2179 62 115 33
Madison 4462 99 250 46
Marion 1066 46 92 15
Marshall 2004 41 58 13
Monroe 1827 77 172 52
Montgomery 696 25 53 9
Neshoba 2113 111 141 39
Newton 1006 29 41 10
Noxubee 671 17 21 4
Oktibbeha 2317 58 193 31
Panola 2020 47 59 9
Pearl River 1363 66 99 23
Perry 622 24 20 7
Pike 1564 58 98 27
Pontotoc 1858 26 19 2
Prentiss 1349 25 76 6
Quitman 462 6 0 0
Rankin 5038 94 185 25
Scott 1438 29 29 3
Sharkey 296 16 43 8
Simpson 1383 53 122 19
Smith 670 16 55 8
Stone 663 14 58 9
Sunflower 1836 54 84 15
Tallahatchie 933 27 29 7
Tate 1553 47 68 18
Tippah 1157 30 61 4
Tishomingo 1020 41 96 26
Tunica 588 19 15 2
Union 1525 25 46 11
Walthall 728 27 67 13
Warren 1681 56 125 26
Washington 2981 106 * 181 39
Wayne 1135 22 59 10
Webster 408 14 52 11
Wilkinson 365 22 20 5
Winston 1076 24 46 11
Yalobusha 652 26 80 18
Yazoo 1433 36 137 14
Total 138,791 3,619 7,256 1,389

* Note: A death previously reported in Washington County has been removed because of out-of-state residence.