Cities with the fastest ‘time-to-crime’ rates for firearms

Published 7:00 pm Thursday, March 2, 2023

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Cities with the fastest ‘time-to-crime’ rates for firearms

The average time between the purchase of a gun and its recovery from a crime scene has gotten shorter in recent years, 2023 data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives shows.

This span of time, known as “time-to-crime,” is used to gauge levels of criminal intent in the purchase of firearms, as well as to deduce where hubs of gun trafficking are. A shorter time-to-crime indicates that weapons were likely purchased with criminal intent and might be objects of firearms trafficking.

The ATF traces firearms in order to aid law enforcement in generating suspect leads when guns are used in crimes, as well as to ascertain how and where guns are moved. To do this, members of law enforcement must voluntarily submit trace requests to the ATF, which can evaluate a gun’s place of manufacture and where it was first purchased.

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Because not all recovered crime guns are reported to the ATF, with some police departments reporting more consistently than others, the accuracy of time-to-crime rates by city or region can be questionable. In Chicago, for instance, the number of gun traces leads other major cities by a significant amount.

Even with inconsistencies in reporting, gun tracing has revealed that some parts of the U.S. serve as hubs for firearms trafficking. Known as the “iron pipeline,” gun traffickers notoriously take advantage of lax gun laws in some states in the Southern and Midwestern U.S., bringing them to states with stricter gun laws, particularly in the Northeast and on the West Coast. As a result, just 10 states—including Indiana, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia—are the source of large quantities of guns recovered at crime scenes in New York and California.

In 2020, there was a significant increase in recovered guns with short time-to-crime rates, with numbers nearly doubling from the previous year. This spike came as homicide rates and gun sales in the U.S. also saw dramatic increases. The full impact of the role of soaring gun sales and shorter time-to-crime rates on higher murder rates in 2020 is not yet known. Due to inconsistent gun tracing practices from police departments across the country, an incomplete picture of the true scope of short time-to-crime rates remains.

Stacker compiled gun crime data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives on 40 cities across the U.S. and ranked them by five-year median time-to-crime rates. Ties were broken by the percentage of guns used in crimes successfully linked to the known purchaser. Analyzed crime guns were recovered and traced between 2017 and 2021 for 40 cities in the U.S. ranging in size—mega, large, medium, and small.

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An aerial view of downtown NYC's skyline.

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#40. New York City

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 6.3 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 12,910 (67.9% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 4.5

An aerial view of Baltimore at dusk.

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#39. Baltimore

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 5.3 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 8,057 (60.4% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 44.9

Buildings in San Jose at sunset.

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#38. San Jose, California

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 4.6 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 1,536 (67.1% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 4.5

The San Diego skyline on a sunny day.

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#37. San Diego

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 4.2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 3,301 (57.9% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 8.1

Los Angeles at dusk.

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#36. Los Angeles

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 4.2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 19,649 (63.8% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 15.7

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Palm trees outside a building in San Bernardino.

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#35. San Bernardino, California

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 4.2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 3,299 (69.8% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 43.0

The Jacksonville skyline as viewed from across the water at night.

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#34. Jacksonville, Florida

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 3.4 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 11,735 (86.2% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 29.5

A bird's-eye view of Tampa's coastline.

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#33. Tampa, Florida

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 3.2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 8,595 (82.8% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 53.7

The Tennessee River looping past Chattanooga.

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#32. Chattanooga, Tennessee

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 3.1 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 4,434 (76.8% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 63.9

Wichita's skyline as seen at night.

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#31. Wichita, Kansas

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 3.1 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 5,534 (81.1% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 34.7

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The downtown Tulsa skyline with a fountain in the foreground.

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#30. Tulsa, Oklahoma

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 3.1 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 6,570 (85.2% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 37.9

The skyline of Winston-Salem on a cloudy day.

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#29. Winston-Salem, North Carolina

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 3 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 4,008 (77.3% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 41.9

Bourbon Street in New Orleans as seen at street level.

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#28. New Orleans

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.9 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 7,497 (83.1% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 46.8

Palm trees outside a building in Orlando at night.

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#27. Orlando, Florida

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.9 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 9,789 (87.6% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 75.9

An aerial view of Chicago and Lake Michigan.

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#26. Chicago

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.8 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 37,680 (74.9% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 37.2

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A historic building on the river in Dayton.

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#25. Dayton, Ohio

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.8 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 4,089 (80.2% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 73.4

A bridge leading to downtown Cincinnati.

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#24. Cincinnati

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.7 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 8,484 (85.0% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 65.4

Miami's coastline at night.

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#23. Miami

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.5 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 7,133 (81.4% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 38.8

Indianapolis's skyline as seen at night.

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#22. Indianapolis

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.5 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 16,589 (82.0% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 46.4

Charlotte's skyline during fall.

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#21. Charlotte, North Carolina

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.5 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 11,882 (82.8% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 33.0

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An aerial drone photo of State Capitol Park in Baton Rouge.

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#20. Baton Rouge, Louisiana

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.5 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 7,339 (85.9% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 76.4

Louisville's skyline and its reflection in water at night.

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#19. Louisville, Kentucky

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.4 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 11,785 (76.9% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 49.1

The Las Vegas Strip at night.

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#18. Las Vegas

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.4 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 18,867 (80.7% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 72.6

Columbus' skyline as seen on a sunny day.

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#17. Columbus, Ohio

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.4 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 12,147 (82.9% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 32.8

An aerial view of downtown Dallas on a sunny day.

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#16. Dallas

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.4 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 16,722 (84.6% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 30.1

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The Riverwalk in San Antonio.

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#15. San Antonio

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.4 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 14,868 (85.5% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 23.5

A street-level view of Philadelphia's City Hall at dusk.

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#14. Philadelphia

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.3 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 16,626 (70.9% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 29.7

Houston's skyline on a sunny day.

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#13. Houston

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.3 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 38,839 (84.8% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 39.8

Cleveland's skyline as seen from across the river on a cloudy day.

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#12. Cleveland

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 7,851 (81.4% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 51.2

Huntsville's skyline as viewed at dusk.

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#11. Huntsville, Alabama

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 4,929 (85.4% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 56.1

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Downtown Mobile's skyline on a sunny day.

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#10. Mobile, Alabama

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 4,757 (87.0% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 58.3

Milwaukee's skyline as seen from across the river.

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#9. Milwaukee

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 13,072 (88.3% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 50.9

Downtown Atlanta's skyline at sunset.

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#8. Atlanta

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2.1 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 13,035 (85.0% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 62.4

The skyline in Shreveport at night.

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#7. Shreveport, Louisiana

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 2 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 4,550 (85.7% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 56.5

An aerial view of downtown Memphis' skyline.

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#6. Memphis, Tennessee

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 1.9 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 19,369 (78.1% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 77.5

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St. Louis and its iconic arch being reflected in water at sunrise.

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#5. St. Louis

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 1.9 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 12,289 (83.8% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 97.5

Phoenix's skyline with mountains in the background as seen from afar.

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#4. Phoenix

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 1.8 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 13,294 (84.1% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 19.4

An aerial view of downtown Columbia.

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#3. Columbia, South Carolina

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 1.7 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 5,489 (87.4% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 96.9

Downtown Detroit at sunset.

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#2. Detroit

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 1.6 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 21,881 (83.9% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 79.9

Richmond's skyline as viewed from afar.

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#1. Richmond, Virginia

– Median time-to-crime from 2017 to 2021: 1.5 years
— Crime guns traced to known purchaser: 5,764 (81.7% of all crime guns)
— Average annual traced crime guns per 10k residents: 62.2

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